Ark Invest Ups 2030 Bull-Case Bitcoin Price Estimate to $2.4 Million on 'Aggressive' Assumptions

Ark Invest's Cathie Wood has updated its long-term view of Bitcoin, raising its 2030 bull-case price estimate to a whopping $2.4 million from its previous forecast of $1.5 million.

In a detailed report released Thursday, Ark analyst David Puell attributed the revised numbers to the firm's new test model, which estimates Bitcoin's liquid supply by excluding lost or long-held coins. The methodology, Puell said, is "more aggressive" than Ark's previous valuation models.

High Growth Rates Fuel Revised Forecast

The $2.4 million bull-case forecast is based on a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2030. In the meantime:

- The base-case price forecast is currently $1.2 million (at 53% CAGR)

- The bear-case forecast is $500,000 (at 32% CAGR)

These were modeled based on projections of total addressable markets (TAMs) and penetration rates, informed by insights into developing macroeconomic and institutional adoption trends.

Key Drivers: Institutional Adoption and Digital Gold Narrative

Puell stressed that Bitcoin's digital gold character forms the basis of the base and bear cases. Institutional investment, however, takes center stage in the bull case.

"Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case," the report points out.

Furthermore, Bitcoin's increasing utility across the developing world is of particular importance. With fewer barriers to entry, Bitcoin provides residents of economically volatile nations with a hedge against currency devaluation as well as potential capital appreciation.

Bitcoin Scarcity Still Undervalued

Ark's report also highlights an important point: Bitcoin's limited supply and lost coins tend to be undervalued in most valuation models.

The experimental approach demonstrates that Bitcoin scarcity and production losses do not appear in current valuation models, according to Puell.

The upward adoption of Bitcoin BTCUSD during 2024 meets Ark Invest's elevation of crypto expectations, which demonstrates powerful support for cryptocurrency expansion into the future.

By including relevant keywords and linking to related articles, the rewritten content aims to provide comprehensive information while enhancing search engine optimization for CryptoTelegraphs.

Join Telegram Channel For Daily New update: https://t.me/cryptotelegraphs_updates