Big Money Accumulates Ethereum While Retail FOMOs Into Bitcoin — What Comes Next?

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded modest gains over the past week, with BTC rising 6.2% and ETH up by 9.6%. However, the rally appears to have slowed at the beginning of the new week.

As of Monday, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $107,000, down 0.6% on the day, while Ethereum remained mostly unchanged over the past 24 hours. Market analysts are now turning to on-chain data and macro signals to predict the next market direction.

Bitcoin & Ethereum Onchain Dynamics

According to Amr Taha, a contributor to CryptoQuant Quicktake, recent blockchain data reveals diverging trends for the two largest cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum has seen five consecutive days of inflows to Binance, a signal that may indicate either rising sell pressure or repositioning by institutional investors.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) Net Position Realized Cap has made a dramatic reversal, shifting from - $49 billion to over + $5 billion.

Taha explains:

“Historically, spikes in STH Net Position Realized Cap coincide with potential market tops, as retail investors tend to FOMO into rallies.”

This doesn’t guarantee an imminent reversal, but historically, such activity has often preceded corrections or sideways consolidation. Bitcoin’s steady ascent throughout June seems to have encouraged retail entry, further reinforcing this trend.

Ethereum Sees Quiet Accumulation by Long-Term Holders

In contrast, a separate CryptoQuant analysis from contributor "crypto sunmoon" highlights a different tone for Ethereum.

“Ethereum is witnessing continued accumulation by long-term holders (LTH),” the analyst noted.

Much of this accumulation in the price consolidation is an indication of increased investor confidence in the long-term prospects of ETH on institutional levels. Instead of investing in for short time rewards, patient capital seems to be establishing positions near suppressed prices.

The market sentiment could be remodelled with the US Policy Moves

The analysts in the macro arena are also keeping an eye on the U.S. policymaking events that would affect the reactions of crypto investors. A recenlty presented bill by the former President Donald Trump to the Senate will contain broader tax cuts, elimination of taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security income.

With an enactment, households would be stimulated at least in the short run to enhance their liquidity state, which would lead to investing in traditional and even digital assets.

However, Tesla CEO Elon Musk cautioned that without accompanying spending cuts, such a bill could worsen the federal deficit, creating long-term economic risk.

“Large fiscal imbalances can shape monetary policy,” Taha noted. “This includes interest rates, inflation expectations, and broader risk sentiment.”

With such variables in play, geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty could influence risk preferences across markets. As a result, investors may pivot toward safer assets like bonds or stable currencies, impacting momentum in the crypto space.

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