Bitcoin Eyes $71K Support as US Tariffs Trigger Market Jitters

Bitcoin BTCUSD Faces Macro Uncertainty Amid Economic Concerns

Bitcoin BTCUSD is experiencing conditions reminiscent of the 2022 bear market bottom as US business sentiment signals a “very high risk” period ahead.

Tariffs Pressure Bitcoin While US Stocks Hold Ground

Bitcoin showed a sharper negative reaction than US equities after former President Donald Trump announced plans for reciprocal trade tariffs on April 2.

BTCUSD tumbled as much as 8.5%, while the S&P 500 managed to close 0.7% higher in Wall Street trading.

Despite this, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted that US business expectations have reached levels seen only three times in the last 25 years.

“Consider this as tariffs come in higher than expected. The Philly Fed Business Outlook survey is showing expectations today comparable to 2000, 2008, and 2022,” Edwards shared with his X followers.

A related chart revealed the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (BOS) dipping below 15 for the first time in 2024. The last comparable low was in late 2022, coinciding with Bitcoin’s reversal at $15,600—the bottom of the previous crypto bear market.

Bitcoin’s Technical Levels: $71K Dip or $91K Breakout?

In Capriole’s March 31 market update, Edwards acknowledged that BOS data isn’t always reliable but emphasized its historical significance.

“While no guarantee of the future outlook (this metric does have false signals), this reading has previously occurred at very high-risk zones (2000, 2008, and 2022). It’s a reason to keep an open mind,” he noted.

“Particularly if the tariff war escalates beyond expectations or corporate margins begin to fall.”

For Bitcoin, Capriole suggests that US macroeconomic moves will dictate its next technical trend.

A daily close above $91K would indicate a strong bullish reclaim.

A drop to $71K could trigger a major bounce in BTCUSD.

Liquidity Trends Could Offer a Silver Lining for Bitcoin

As previously reported, global liquidity expansion could provide relief for crypto markets.

The US Federal Reserve has already begun loosening financial conditions, with speculation growing around a return to quantitative easing (QE).

“How long until the Powell printer starts humming?” Edwards asked, hinting at potential M2 money supply expansion.

Notably, M2 money supply is set for a significant increase, a historical precursor to Bitcoin price surges.

“The BIG takeaway is that a major M2 influx is coming. The exact timing is less critical,” analyst Colin Talks Crypto predicted in an X thread this week.

A comparative analysis suggests BTC could rebound by early May.

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