Polymarket is in the News for Controversy over $7M Ukraine Mineral Market Bet

March 26, 2025 – Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market, is facing heat after a contested market settlement raised eyebrows about governance manipulation in a high-profile political wager.

Disputed Settlement Sparks Accusations

A Polymarket market for bets doubted if former U.S. President Donald Trump would take a rare earth mineral agreement with Ukraine prior to April. Though no such deal was done, the market was resolved as "Yes," which attracted criticism from users and analysts.

Crypto security researcher Vladimir S. opined that this could be a "governance attack", where UMA Protocol-linked whale is accused of manipulating the oracle system to control the outcome of the market.

- "The tycoon voted 5 million tokens via three accounts, representing 25% of the votes," Vladimir posted on March 26 X.

- "Polymarket is committed to making sure this does not happen again."

Oracles, Voting Power, and Market Manipulation Issues

Polymarket uses UMA Protocol's blockchain oracles to obtain external information and resolve bets. The market in question registered more than $7 million worth of trading before resolving on March 25.

Others, though, say that the problem wasn't an attack, but sloppiness. A pseudonymous user, Tenadome, dismissed manipulation accusations, saying:

- "There is no 'tycoon' who manipulated the oracle," he wrote on March 26. - "The same UMA whales who vote on every dispute ignored the clarification, took their rewards, and avoided slashing penalties."

Polymarket Denies Refunds, Promises Safeguards

In spite of user anger, Polymarket moderators assured that refunds would not be given.

- "This market decided against user intent and our clarification," stated Polymarket moderator Tanner. - "Unfortunately, as this was not a failure of the market, refunds are not possible."

To avoid future similar conflicts, Polymarket revealed plans to create new monitoring systems to maintain market integrity in future wagers.

Prediction Markets Surge Amid U.S. Elections

Amid political betting gaining momentum, the prediction market business jumped 565% in Q3 2024, powered by the U.S. presidential election.

- Total volume betting on the three largest markets reached $3.1 billion from $463.3 million during Q2. - Polymarket led the market, which took more than 99% of market share through September 2024.

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